TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Club Olimpiaof CR Vasco da Gama, Club Olimpia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,895 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed CR Vasco da Gama17c5,546$954 inLost-$953.91,29042.8%552 W · 738 L-2.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Club Olimpia76c5,527$4,187 inWon+$1,339.868,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed CR Vasco da Gama27c3,491$929 inLost-$929.362,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef57…827dbacked Club Olimpia71c305$217 inWon+$88.45650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x374e…87c9backed CR Vasco da Gama11c227.27$25 inLost-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a72…c2a0backed CR Vasco da Gama11c140.61$15 inLost-$14.830231.1%94 W · 208 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Club Olimpia76c131.02$99 inWon+$31.8795155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Club Olimpia76c130.99$99 inWon+$31.7860156.2%338 W · 263 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Club Olimpia72c96.14$69 inWon+$26.9240451.2%207 W · 197 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed CR Vasco da Gama28c83.96$23 inLost-$23.4410044%44 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Club Olimpia75c51.73$39 inWon+$13.1263061.3%386 W · 244 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Club Olimpia72c30$22 inWon+$8.455946%257 W · 302 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe32…960bbacked Club Olimpia73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Club Olimpia71c26$18 inWon+$7.5472058.8%423 W · 297 L+29.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Club Olimpia72c23.29$17 inWon+$6.5416459.8%98 W · 66 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x434a…91cbbacked Club Olimpia75c19.66$15 inWon+$4.992075%15 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+30.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed Club Olimpia79c17.16$14 inWon+$3.5912662.7%79 W · 47 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Club Olimpia73c13.7$10 inWon+$3.73363.6%21 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.