Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C: Cobolli vs. Nishioka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fff56da42fcc10b156c4ddff89089d0c27ef50fdafaaa00dc052373c448bdd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cobolliof Cobolli, Nishioka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ef4…412cbacked Nishioka | 33c | 9,337$3,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,081.15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cobolli | 67c | 3,488$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.95 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cobolli | 67c | 2,574$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.49 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Cobolli | 65c | 1,335$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.6 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…c05fbacked Cobolli | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…6395backed Nishioka | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Nishioka | 19c | 978.95$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Cobolli | 71c | 912.51$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…9cd5backed Nishioka | 39c | 875$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b45…d433backed Nishioka | 39c | 870$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…5f8fbacked Nishioka | 39c | 840$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…51e2backed Cobolli | 61c | 835$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe416…d01bbacked Cobolli | 61c | 815$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Cobolli | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Cobolli | 66c | 598.48$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…7ab0backed Cobolli | 61c | 510$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Cobolli | 72c | 500$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Nishioka | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Nishioka | 36c | 499.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nishioka | 34c | 468.38$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c87…64f8backed Cobolli | 61c | 330$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Nishioka | 23c | 254.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nishioka | 40c | 248.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nishioka | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Cobolli | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nishioka | 11c | 185.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cobolli | 67c | 183$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Nishioka | 29c | 169.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6984…ad20backed Cobolli | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…9630backed Cobolli | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cobolli | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…6122backed Nishioka | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Nishioka | 34c | 127.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654c…6c30backed Nishioka | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Cobolli | 67c | 122.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…f36bbacked Cobolli | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nishioka | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Nishioka | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Cobolli | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nishioka | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…9191backed Cobolli | 64c | 88.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Cobolli | 72c | 76.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Nishioka | 30c | 71.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7d…199bbacked Nishioka | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152a…0626backed Cobolli | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…a3debacked Nishioka | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nishioka | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e9…ed08backed Cobolli | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Nishioka | 38c | 39.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…cf48backed Nishioka | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cobolli | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Cobolli | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249d…6be1backed Cobolli | 64c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Cobolli | 70c | 26.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…8121backed Cobolli | 71c | 24.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Cobolli | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.