Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400b06dedfd28f0287ee49863ddbe00e32f47bdb2803806d5f48475f476fc804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 430.72$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 409.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 78c | 271$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 193.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 166.52$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 159.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 73c | 145.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 142.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 124.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 29c | 119.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 22c | 116.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 110.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 23c | 107.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 30c | 104.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 25c | 102.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 100.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 99.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 28c | 99.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 95.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 90.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 73c | 66.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 64.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 71c | 60.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 29c | 60.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 24c | 56.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 70c | 54.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 62c | 52.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 76c | 50.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 74c | 48.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 45.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 40.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 73c | 40.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 38.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…7347backed No | 78c | 35.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 79c | 34.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 75c | 34.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 39c | 33.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 70c | 30.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 37c | 28.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 63c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 79c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 77c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 78c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 23.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 60c | 22.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 56c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 77c | 22.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 72c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 64c | 21.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 78c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…fe76backed No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…7833backed No | 75c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 67c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 72c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8c1fbacked No | 77c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…7eb2backed No | 78c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c52…c733backed No | 77c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.