Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0f81d7c9a64c1480f843e55da0c7dbb7f9689b30771bdf8137ae7ba8560c68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 76c | 485.35$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 355.28$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 58c | 350$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.99 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 188.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 155.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed Yes | 74c | 154.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 40c | 152.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 71c | 150.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…58d3backed Yes | 19c | 144.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 44c | 141.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa398…72cfbacked Yes | 15c | 138.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed Yes | 77c | 137.12$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 75c | 133.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 42c | 127.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 53c | 124.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 43c | 121.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 68c | 114.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 107.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 36c | 105.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 18c | 104.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 102.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 20c | 102.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…b899backed No | 59c | 95.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 73c | 89.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 47c | 89.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 34c | 88.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 31c | 86.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…4871backed Yes | 46c | 77.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776c…5c84backed Yes | 53c | 73.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…a2cabacked No | 59c | 71.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 59c | 64.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 23c | 64.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…f75dbacked Yes | 61c | 64.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 40c | 61.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 59.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 69c | 45.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 44c | 44.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 41c | 44.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 39.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 60c | 37.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 60c | 37.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 40c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 45c | 35.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…56cbbacked Yes | 37c | 35.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 42c | 34.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…6b8ebacked No | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 32.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes | 80c | 31.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 64c | 30.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 36c | 29.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 28.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 28.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 54c | 28.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 74c | 26.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 58c | 25.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 76c | 25.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 50c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 68c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.