Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403b4ed91ef07fe0d7f0c5210e9562abd770c5b79a84cbbe45688f7472ef0d4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.97 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 17c | 2,860$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.89 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,646$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.11 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 29c | 704.23$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.23 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 69c | 295.77$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 30c | 139.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 25c | 100.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 14c | 90.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 30c | 60.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…fc2bbacked Over | 31c | 50.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 70c | 49.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Under | 69c | 43.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Over | 30c | 40.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 69c | 30.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 69c | 30.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…2c9bbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: New York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.