Mls · resolved market

Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a411f467c066d3c79e11360afe996a265a0e643c5f29ee5fb92ad6d60b65029

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York City FCof Columbus Crew, New York City FC
Resolved: Jul 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,562 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed New York City FC	75c	4,035$3,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.07	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Columbus Crew	26c	1,596$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.96	702	49.7%349 W · 353 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Columbus Crew	26c	1,576$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.71	728	50.7%369 W · 359 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Columbus Crew	22c	1,529$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.35	215	47.9%103 W · 112 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York City FC	78c	629$491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.38	238	58%138 W · 100 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed New York City FC	75c	300.74$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.13	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Columbus Crew	22c	262.58$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.77	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked New York City FC	74c	255.98$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.55	270	47%127 W · 143 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York City FC	73c	245.13$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.4	1,270	48%610 W · 660 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Columbus Crew	26c	192.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	33cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Columbus Crew	21c	152.05$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.66	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Columbus Crew	26c	140$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	111	44.1%49 W · 62 L	-9.4wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed New York City FC	74c	138.22$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.94	264	50%132 W · 132 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Columbus Crew	15c	117.65$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	1,880	36.6%688 W · 1,192 L	-7.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Columbus Crew	14c	108.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	820	44.5%365 W · 455 L	-16.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x850f…b208backed New York City FC	74c	81.27$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d06…30d8backed Columbus Crew	26c	75.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked New York City FC	77c	72$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.72	184	56.5%104 W · 80 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dc4…4870backed Columbus Crew	25c	66.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x787b…f0a6backed New York City FC	75c	66.2$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.55	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab56…e635backed Columbus Crew	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	0%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Columbus Crew	25c	47.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4993…553fbacked New York City FC	76c	46.51$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.14	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed New York City FC	76c	44.34$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.47	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed New York City FC	77c	40.29$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	84	54.8%46 W · 38 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5998…b5a8backed New York City FC	75c	39.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.93	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed New York City FC	74c	38.59$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.03	734	38.1%280 W · 454 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a62…5247backed New York City FC	74c	35$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.1	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-3.9wins	-0.18per pick	63cpaid	-32%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed New York City FC	74c	29$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.54	1,301	51.2%666 W · 635 L	-19.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed New York City FC	74c	27.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.11	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	68cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed New York City FC	77c	19.88$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.64	149	57.7%86 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…be28backed New York City FC	70c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	69cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)this page
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: New York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Columbus Crew vs. New York City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)New York City FC won
Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)Columbus Crew won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event