World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40534128645a2113f3a7aa9163ba8a8886606af919c62dc76d2ab489aefacf02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 27c | 106.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 97.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 41c | 64.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 28c | 51.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 49.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 46.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 44.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 39.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 100 | 73%73 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.