World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44fbee1a8be9848469ec926e8fd4ad4c8af3249301d2e74f14168caa279ab574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 41c | 177.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 150.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 52c | 132.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 100.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 85.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 52c | 74.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 71.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed Yes | 80c | 68.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 68.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 65.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 63c | 63.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +104%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 67c | 55.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 44.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 41.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 41.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 45c | 34.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 34c | 31.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 34c | 31.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 33c | 30.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 67c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…c324backed No | 58c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 24.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 44c | 22.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 50c | 21.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 154 | 15.6%24 W · 130 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…a12abacked Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.