Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40542fb7642727840f9f03ec238be7bfa34b689e4ec4d6028a515f9617222d02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.99 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…fd5bbacked Over | 39c | 1,927$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 61c | 1,825$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.05 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,448$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.94 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 25c | 1,369$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.55 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 51c | 1,144$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 57c | 698.85$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.34 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 60c | 613.17$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.9 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 60c | 607.35$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.26 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 61c | 603.49$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.13 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 596.91$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.73 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 53c | 550.16$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 43c | 550.09$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.55 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 542.7$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.95 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 357.23$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 43c | 195$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 42c | 194.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 179.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +37%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 57c | 159.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 19c | 153$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 44c | 131.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 67c | 131.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed Over | 76c | 129.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 46c | 105.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 99.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 42c | 85.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 74c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 60c | 49.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 41c | 48.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Under | 62c | 47.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 48c | 46.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +10.6wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 43c | 46.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 56c | 30.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 37c | 27.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 43c | 26.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.