Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0686120f521c50724fb8c30aba57c12220ef2606c502bfbdfe87fbb69dcac78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 16c | 1,794$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.88 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 78c | 780.58$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…ee20backed Over | 70c | 702.87$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 63c | 499.11$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.67 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 32c | 465.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 404.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 31c | 380.61$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 238.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 63c | 233.39$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 64c | 229.31$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 202.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Under | 25c | 171.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 165.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 148.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 70c | 139.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…efb3backed Over | 79c | 117.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 99.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 14c | 94.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 63c | 76.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 19c | 74.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 79c | 63.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 31c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 75c | 27.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)Lille OSC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Lille OSC won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.