TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,277 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians63c1,386$873 inLost-$873.0611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers39c1,074$420 inWon+$653.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers37c681.3$255 inWon+$426.64,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886f…aa8fbacked Texas Rangers38c526.32$200 inWon+$326.3211951.3%61 W · 58 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians62c526.32$326 inLost-$326.323,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians62c278.73$173 inLost-$172.811,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Cleveland Guardians62c233.39$145 inLost-$144.789053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians63c168$106 inLost-$105.842,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians61c135.34$83 inLost-$82.568,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Texas Rangers38c131.58$50 inWon+$81.5847849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers36c122.24$44 inWon+$78.233,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers36c117.36$42 inWon+$75.114,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians63c108.27$68 inLost-$68.212,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers38c102$39 inWon+$63.2472154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Texas Rangers37c81.08$30 inWon+$51.083237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Cleveland Guardians64c72.87$47 inLost-$46.641,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Texas Rangers39c56.34$22 inWon+$34.3787352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Texas Rangers37c48.05$18 inWon+$30.2722350.7%113 W · 110 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…9945backed Texas Rangers37c45.23$17 inWon+$28.493036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…5703backed Texas Rangers37c32.43$12 inWon+$20.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+47.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Texas Rangers38c30$11 inWon+$18.634843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians63c16$10 inLost-$10.081,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.