MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08ef678093eb0cf07f023e5403982c6b0b089a029b0fba52aa0ee9bdc9c4bab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 8,129$5,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Over | 26c | 7,534$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.2 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 2,909$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 23c | 2,016$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Under | 78c | 2,010$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 1,177$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 1,004$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 749.75$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 328$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 50c | 299.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.49 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 55c | 222.02$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 215.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 46c | 210$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 40c | 157.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 149.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 57c | 137.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 134.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Over | 26c | 119.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 55c | 93.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Over | 39c | 89.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 56c | 88.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 43c | 85.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 77c | 68.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 54c | 65.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 42c | 58.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…018ebacked Over | 40c | 55.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 36c | 49.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 56c | 49.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 74c | 47.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Under | 60c | 39.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Under | 64c | 38.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 58c | 38.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 29c | 38.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Over | 49c | 35.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 56c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 56c | 26.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 77c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Under | 79c | 21.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Under | 64c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 57c | 17.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.