MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x608f2c098915a7f533d5c7546d2f8c5ea9b56ca545276f35cda7d8da1bc70d09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed No | 57c | 1,921$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 44c | 1,142$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.52 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 43c | 1,094$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.41 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 49c | 837.52$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.13 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 42c | 669.14$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.1 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed No | 51c | 585.6$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.66 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Yes | 47c | 408.3$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.48 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 53c | 181.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…10fabacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 51c | 105.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked No | 53c | 93.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 84.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 51c | 48.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 65c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed No | 56c | 39.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1c…4f42backed No | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangersthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.