MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6742fc27a8c03540cc37c403491a4ce022816a9f921dd0ebb0187021dfdaa9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 47c | 1,200$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 744.39$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 718.67$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 697.47$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 623.11$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 235$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 221.26$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 202.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 129.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 108.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 40c | 90.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 83.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Under | 52c | 76.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 53c | 71.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 58c | 68.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 41c | 68.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 47c | 68.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 54c | 64.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 59c | 61.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 57.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 24c | 56.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 52c | 52.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 51.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 48.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375f…b494backed Under | 55c | 45.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 41.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 53c | 41.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 42c | 37.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 65c | 33.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 61c | 31.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 29.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 47c | 28.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 36c | 28.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 64c | 27.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 62c | 22.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…12dabacked Under | 53c | 20.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.