Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zizou Bergs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x407979798f0b958491e003b4bdb76bd8729815e4ef592bb5551431f762dae564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bergsof Cerundolo, Bergs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98b1…d855backed Bergs | 55c | 20,726$11,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,231.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…3bc3backed Cerundolo | 61c | 8,541$5,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,218.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Cerundolo | 40c | 6,403$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,584.05 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cerundolo | 38c | 3,284$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.89 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bergs | 43c | 2,991$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.36 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cerundolo | 54c | 2,491$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.97 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cerundolo | 44c | 2,016$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.42 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cerundolo | 46c | 1,100$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.99 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Cerundolo | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bergs | 59c | 718.09$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.68 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cerundolo | 39c | 699.99$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714cbacked Cerundolo | 26c | 449$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Cerundolo | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Cerundolo | 30c | 310$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Bergs | 45c | 152.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Cerundolo | 46c | 152.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Cerundolo | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Cerundolo | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Cerundolo | 62c | 104.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Bergs | 41c | 102.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Cerundolo | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Bergs | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bergs | 57c | 91.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Bergs | 40c | 87.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Cerundolo | 57c | 72.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bergs | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Bergs | 44c | 58.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Bergs | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Bergs | 39c | 51.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bergs | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Cerundolo | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Cerundolo | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Cerundolo | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Bergs | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.