Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4089466d411ccb48c5d958237b488722251208f4d236c51f2c52c1d1541d4414
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 33c | 1,022$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.78 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 517$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 320.78$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 250.61$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 207.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 67c | 172$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 76c | 124.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 39c | 77.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 39c | 65.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed Yes | 31c | 57.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 46.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 43.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 50c | 38.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 37.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 36.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 24.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 68c | 23.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 16.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.