Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76de36907ebf58b47e586e622a512097db016c615c91646142cd5246bb478493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 60c | 1,078$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.24 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 52c | 372.01$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.74 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 307$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 234$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 41c | 216$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 41c | 207$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 206.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 61c | 183.43$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 134.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 41c | 104.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 56c | 92.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 90.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 64c | 77.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 74.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 59.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 56.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 56.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 68c | 52.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 69c | 51.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 44.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 42c | 42.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 41.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…8940backed Yes | 52c | 39.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 39.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 38.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 33c | 36.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…3c10backed Yes | 39c | 35.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 33.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 31.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 26.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 24.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc34…713fbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 20.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.