MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40b133d23bb1e07d76216c85bd5abd1e941b816ace874e0ff2c7d735ba0236d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06fa…455cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 11,945$7,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,551.69 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 8,967$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 4,979$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.08 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 4,537$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 2,001$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 66c | 1,838$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.4 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 1,824$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.71 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 7c | 1,666$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 943.93$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.19 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 876.84$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 739.21$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 653.43$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.02 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 349$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 10c | 203$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…b78ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 136.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 34c | 109.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 17c | 102.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 20c | 97.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 89.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 39.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 33.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 25.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.