MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c4352afdd0913b42bbc268cc3c5691f3fafba08002a0d364dd2a8eb0620e5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 6,984$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 5,017$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.59 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…455cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 3,455$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.64 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 2,378$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 2,285$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.84 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 1,993$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.33 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 1,440$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 1,300$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 1,246$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.53 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 732.55$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.55 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 692.09$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 534.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 454$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 240$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 239.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.4 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 217.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 150.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…bda6backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 149.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 120.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 80c | 113.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…a25dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 29c | 96.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 75.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 66.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3d…2ea9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 73c | 66.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 61.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 56.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 45.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 40.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 37.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 32.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec79…1e2abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 31.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 77c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.