MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79ade4ef78ce54e10c9a8347cd6e473ad644f3c56d5711aee26c7cfda3a9caf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 49c | 20,396$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,395.82 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 20,094$10,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,117.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Under | 34c | 1,450$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.29 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 51c | 1,199$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.71 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 916.19$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.19 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 700.41$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 66c | 579.35$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 64c | 517.83$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 66c | 460$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 36c | 407.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 23c | 399$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 378.83$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 302.08$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 66c | 215.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 49c | 204.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 53c | 188.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 32c | 133.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 78c | 127.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 50c | 104.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 54c | 70.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 70c | 64.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Under | 43c | 57.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Over | 63c | 40.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 37c | 33.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 57c | 32.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 39c | 29.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 78c | 27.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Over | 66c | 27.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 53c | 26.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 57c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Over | 66c | 17.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.