Token Launches · resolved market
idOS FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40b426b718dcb4421439f549054143a0800eb948e5b5beddc33520ac6a08d41b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,184 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 14c | 953.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 17c | 916.71$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.43 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 889$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…47eebacked No | 9c | 788.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 640.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 52c | 408.6$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 57c | 351.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 247.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…5144backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 9c | 195.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 171.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed Yes | 73c | 169.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…8f6bbacked Yes | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…111dbacked Yes | 75c | 75.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 75c | 50.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed No | 39c | 39.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 70c | 30.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- idOS FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- idOS FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- idOS FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- idOS FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.