Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40b84e3c09cdcfdee93be2a412ed51438739ffdd2910e4c7edf002bad3b8ab67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof GamerLegion, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked GamerLegion | 49c | 7,957$3,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,875.53 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Heroic | 50c | 5,161$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,566.72 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 53c | 633.28$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.27 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 53c | 555$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.3 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…5e03backed Heroic | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Heroic | 53c | 400$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked Heroic | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked GamerLegion | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Heroic | 50c | 226.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Heroic | 78c | 217.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Heroic | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed GamerLegion | 36c | 188.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Heroic | 55c | 186.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed GamerLegion | 51c | 169.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Heroic | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked GamerLegion | 10c | 116.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed Heroic | 54c | 114.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heroic | 56c | 110.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked GamerLegion | 60c | 103$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed GamerLegion | 34c | 87.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa993…1c15backed GamerLegion | 75c | 85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Heroic | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed GamerLegion | 60c | 48.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e83…ecabbacked Heroic | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Heroic | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Heroic | 57c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Heroic | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Heroic | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHeroic won
- Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.