Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40bd2b9a566dab76e8a3be2a852de665b5e82aa73397edc324736ea28eac03c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 920.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 138.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…934cbacked No | 76c | 128.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 32c | 110.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 31c | 99.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 94.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 77c | 90.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 78.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 77.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 68.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 65.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked No | 59c | 60.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 21c | 53.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 32c | 50.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 66c | 49.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 44.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 68c | 43.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 42.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 35c | 42.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 59c | 31.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 28.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Yes | 56c | 25.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…622cbacked No | 68c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 71c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 54c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…d2d9backed No | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.