TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Missouri State Bears vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Western Kentucky Hilltoppersof Missouri State Bears, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,829 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcdb8…abbebacked Missouri State Bears26c1,567$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3905152.9%27 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Missouri State Bears26c1,379$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.514339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers75c819$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.992,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers75c565$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.252,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Missouri State Bears25c517.12$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.559849%48 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers77c456.09$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3573549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Missouri State Bears15c447.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7757335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers76c319.87$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5548051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Missouri State Bears27c281.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.034,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Missouri State Bears19c250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.251,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers75c227$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.753,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers68c209.79$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.915,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Missouri State Bears14c197.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.171,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers77c171.22$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.021,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers72c170.79$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.562,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Missouri State Bears27c99.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.92,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers71c93.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.042,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Missouri State Bears29c63.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.292,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Missouri State Bears27c49.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.451,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Missouri State Bears26c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers72c42.52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9199045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers76c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0849747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers72c29.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.194,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…a045backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers72c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.123259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers72c17.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Western Kentucky Hilltoppers69c16.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.253,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.71,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.