Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40fba32592413c951ccb524d7d213df2e6fd90ca01312b7a4d5e5f8fb8f389df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 281.76$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 164.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 20c | 143.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 24c | 139.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed Yes | 9c | 127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 126$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 10c | 124.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 20c | 120.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 117.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 103.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 92.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 91.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 76c | 90.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 88.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 24c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 75.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 72.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 56.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 52.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 21c | 51.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 41.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 75c | 39.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 39.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…dec7backed No | 78c | 38.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 37.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 33.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.