Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa885a11f6deca4020bc6849224c11d99927ab37d470c031e6de3fde294e41eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 927.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 514.5$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 300$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 33c | 237.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 71c | 215.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 204.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 185.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.54 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 44c | 159.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 156.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 52c | 149.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 144.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 142.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 117.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 116.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 51c | 114.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 109$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 99.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 85.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 30c | 82.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 78.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 75.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 75.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 73.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 69.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 69.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 66.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 65.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 53c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…3ddfbacked Yes | 48c | 63.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 69c | 61.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 60.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 60.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 26c | 59.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 53c | 55.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 35c | 55.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 29c | 46.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 27c | 46.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 49c | 44.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 43.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 47c | 43.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 42.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 41.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 41.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0827…cdcfbacked Yes | 37c | 40.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 40.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 40.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 34c | 39.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 62c | 37.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 36.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 35.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 46c | 32.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 31.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 66c | 28.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 28.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 28.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 60c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 21.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.