TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,856 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants31c762.55$236 inWon+$526.162,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants37c750.32$280 inWon+$470.810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0706…f25dbacked Athletics69c638.1$440 inLost-$440.296669.7%46 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66d…6daabacked Athletics64c625$400 inLost-$40021147.9%101 W · 110 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics45c566.16$255 inLost-$254.771,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Athletics54c186.13$100 inLost-$10030452%158 W · 146 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants52c125.04$65 inWon+$59.811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics55c96.97$53 inLost-$53.1612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed San Francisco Giants68c96.18$65 inWon+$31.0533864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants49c94$46 inWon+$47.925,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Athletics34c91.18$31 inLost-$3163943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed San Francisco Giants55c90.91$50 inWon+$40.9146557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Athletics55c90.91$50 inLost-$5029331.7%93 W · 200 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Athletics45c88.91$40 inLost-$40.012,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants45c88.41$40 inWon+$48.628,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…e6d8backed Athletics69c57.97$40 inLost-$409150.5%46 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Athletics69c56$39 inLost-$38.6446854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Athletics69c56$39 inLost-$38.6472154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Athletics35c40$14 inLost-$13.941836.4%152 W · 266 L-31.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics45c24$11 inLost-$10.736,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Athletics69c22$15 inLost-$15.184156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.