MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x788cee1dd1002b4026e6f4182a9890229e494ff3a287c8158558785163de0f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 56c | 8,095$4,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,548.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Athletics | 15c | 6,333$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 15c | 5,774$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 26c | 4,994$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Athletics | 15c | 3,254$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.12 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 16c | 3,164$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Athletics | 15c | 2,681$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.12 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.03 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Athletics | 15c | 2,316$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.43 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Athletics | 15c | 2,316$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.43 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics | 15c | 1,464$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Athletics | 15c | 1,464$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Athletics | 15c | 610.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 20c | 333.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Athletics | 15c | 284.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Athletics | 15c | 213.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Athletics | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed San Francisco Giants | 11c | 124.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Athletics | 21c | 113.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Athletics | 15c | 103.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 103.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Athletics | 40c | 95.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 63c | 82.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Athletics | 44c | 69.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Athletics | 23c | 60.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 37.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a968backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.