Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4171a97ba735bd8e405714f33398df48701a16c63de9c053acf5d11704f594c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 26c | 410.38$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 18c | 299.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 21c | 238.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed No | 21c | 203.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 25c | 145.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 69c | 124.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 24c | 85.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 19c | 79.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 28c | 71.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 14c | 70.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 56.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked No | 22c | 55.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 50c | 54.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed Yes | 74c | 54.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 50.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 75c | 44.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 29c | 40.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 77c | 37.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 36.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 76c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 75c | 16.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed Yes | 78c | 15.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 74c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.