Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d119c9b51f35a0556bbf4d5fb8a0c37e087cd5e82020fac26ceb60c8f0b4c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked No | 3c | 1,440$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 23c | 914.17$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.56 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked No | 41c | 899.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.76 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 57c | 595.45$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 578.26$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.54 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 474.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 74c | 423.83$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 35c | 364.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 41c | 338.47$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 37c | 310.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 58c | 233.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 79c | 233.23$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 69c | 189.42$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.12 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 176.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 55c | 149.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 64c | 147.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 21c | 138.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 135$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 132.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed Yes | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 57c | 98.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 50c | 92.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 90.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 65c | 85.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 24c | 83.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 40c | 77.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 64c | 76.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 70c | 70.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 55c | 67.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed No | 42c | 66.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 29c | 57.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed Yes | 52c | 57.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 56.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 54.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed No | 42c | 53.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 30c | 53.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 52.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 46.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 28c | 46.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 79c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 61c | 44.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 54c | 43.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 42.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 58c | 40.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…b550backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 35c | 38.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 65c | 38.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 62c | 36.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 65c | 35.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 34.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 65c | 33.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…7adbbacked No | 79c | 31.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 38c | 29.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 69c | 27.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 75c | 26.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 79c | 26.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…d270backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 42c | 26.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed No | 39c | 25.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 60c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 65c | 25.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 57c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 53c | 22.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 62c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 53c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked No | 49c | 20.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 60c | 18.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 59c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 69c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6e…225cbacked No | 63c | 15.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.