MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4177873b101f3b3e946e84f439d56dc53f8eeab1fb3b397b78a768dd7bae5cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigersof Orioles, Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Orioles | 32c | 8,650$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tigers | 68c | 7,445$5,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.54 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Tigers | 50c | 2,259$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.5 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Orioles | 50c | 2,259$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Tigers | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Orioles | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Orioles | 35c | 946.78$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.37 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 34c | 924.39$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.29 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 35c | 803.88$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.42 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles | 34c | 762.18$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.14 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Tigers | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 33c | 755.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.71 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tigers | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tigers | 65c | 673.08$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.58 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Orioles | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tigers | 65c | 330$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tigers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tigers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Tigers | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Tigers | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Tigers | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 34c | 89.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Orioles | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 17c | 64.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles | 36c | 57.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Tigers | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles | 33c | 46.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Tigers | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Tigers | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Tigers | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Tigers | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Tigers | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.