MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x417f10cbb6220c79c36fcd34c7f743871ae7cbfe5b1f18ee0e7e29834818dd6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 641.19$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.59 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 550$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 490.56$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 300$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a0c6backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 264.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 253.23$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 211.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…726cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 107.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 33.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…b61bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.