Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4192ce702f6026bc86a9357bceee8bfcfec91b5da057f420d201333e91af3656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Secret Whalesof Team Secret Whales, Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 47c | 2,455$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.82 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Team Secret Whales | 54c | 1,313$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.94 | 644 | 43%277 W · 367 L | -27.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b690backed Team Secret Whales | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 825 | 54.8%452 W · 373 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Team Secret Whales | 49c | 581$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.31 | 1,151 | 56%644 W · 507 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 624 | 51.4%321 W · 303 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Secret Whales | 71c | 149.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 697 | 41.5%289 W · 408 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 32c | 109.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…e1d1backed Team Secret Whales | 53c | 100.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 392 | 51.3%201 W · 191 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 48c | 97.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Team Secret Whales | 52c | 95.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 14c | 80.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 389 | 31.9%124 W · 265 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Team Secret Whales | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 960 | 48.8%468 W · 492 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 406 | 37.7%153 W · 253 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 20c | 69.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 231 | 36.4%84 W · 147 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b8…0469backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Team Secret Whales | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Secret Whales | 59c | 39.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Team Secret Whales | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 421 | 43.9%185 W · 236 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbac…6b32backed Team Secret Whales | 62c | 34.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Team Secret Whales | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 393 | 52.4%206 W · 187 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Team Secret Whales | 58c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 219 | 53%116 W · 103 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+1.5)this page
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Swiss StageTeam Secret Whales won
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 WinnerTeam Secret Whales won
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 WinnerTeam Secret Whales won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.