Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: FS (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b32f2d0f3c75af2f0cb1bb680ea6d4d31e91995bdb1cc4fbfea481d4f2ddd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FULL SENSEof FULL SENSE, VARREL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed FULL SENSE | 60c | 999.98$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed VARREL | 57c | 700.57$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.24 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked VARREL | 40c | 613.23$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.29 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +23.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed VARREL | 39c | 319.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 391 | 66%258 W · 133 L | +24.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked FULL SENSE | 42c | 296.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.22 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed FULL SENSE | 43c | 193.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 253 | 47%119 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed FULL SENSE | 44c | 103.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb45…0c68backed FULL SENSE | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed FULL SENSE | 43c | 26.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked VARREL | 56c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…238cbacked VARREL | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FS (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group OmegaFULL SENSE won
- Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL - Map 1 WinnerFULL SENSE won
- Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL - Map 2 WinnerFULL SENSE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.