Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c2055b22d99dc941723c0f05e674545f61a9d862f61f47aa7c68341f2da1d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 0c | 11,351$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,914$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.38 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 795.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 584.88$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 65c | 427.19$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 54c | 348.67$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.67 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 26c | 332.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 9c | 299.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 41c | 276.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 242.92$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 54c | 213.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 26c | 205.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 199.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 41c | 174.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 17c | 172.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 152.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 59c | 151.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 141$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 69c | 139.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 103.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 102.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 62c | 99.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 90.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd343…a7d1backed No | 34c | 84.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed No | 20c | 84.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 60c | 83.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 22c | 68.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 19c | 65.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 64.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 42c | 62.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 76c | 61.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 61.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 56.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 63c | 55.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 32c | 54.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 37c | 54.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 51.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 42c | 51.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 57c | 50.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 47.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 34c | 42.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 40.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 38.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 35.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 35.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…a012backed Yes | 28c | 35.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee2…e056backed No | 54c | 35.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 44c | 32.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 78c | 31.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 80c | 29.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 28.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 69c | 28.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 67c | 27.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…c55dbacked No | 73c | 26.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 56c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…194fbacked No | 65c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…b400backed No | 72c | 20.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 76c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1d22backed Yes | 57c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 16.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 63c | 16.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.