Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543bebdf1a37afbba588e57001ded0a453e42e0bb52b209e1a245220d98b16af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,191$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 594.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 340.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 12c | 319.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 73c | 265.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 184.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 163.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 155.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 150.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 134.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 23c | 131.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 24c | 116.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…1b30backed Yes | 17c | 115.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 36c | 104.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 19c | 103.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 74c | 99.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 86.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 18c | 85.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 85.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 18c | 81.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 75.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 19c | 74.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 76c | 71.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 70c | 70.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 67.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 67.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 65.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 52.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 33c | 41.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 75c | 40.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…4b28backed Yes | 26c | 39.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 32.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 63c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.