Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c58b28f16552cd0a4042385c6226a326fd53d96b4d14d4a3cb59acd10133c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 31c | 5,381$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.83 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 4,315$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.28 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 1,749$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.21 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 23c | 1,635$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 77c | 1,170$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 32c | 941.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 20c | 476.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 378.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 13c | 302.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 69c | 289.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 69c | 191.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 67c | 186$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 183$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 68c | 182.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 22c | 161.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 22c | 146.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 18c | 133.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 70c | 127.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 26c | 119.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 32c | 93.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 70c | 85.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 21c | 77.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 28c | 73.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 69c | 64.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 77c | 57.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 68c | 57.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Under | 79c | 43.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 69c | 40.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 78c | 38.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 70c | 32.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed Under | 70c | 30.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 79c | 21.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 69c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.