TailMyPicks

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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: HAVU vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-Zero Tenacityof HAVU, ex-Zero Tenacity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,418 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x568c…fbd0backed ex-Zero Tenacity33c8,963$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,008.082560%15 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked HAVU58c8,631$4,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,974.623,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed HAVU45c5,530$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.7539248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed ex-Zero Tenacity52c4,328$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08012752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked HAVU49c4,127$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.742,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity52c2,984$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.2475056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed HAVU50c2,044$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.2411550.4%58 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-Zero Tenacity29c1,854$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.275,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-Zero Tenacity52c1,820$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.575,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c84…4effbacked ex-Zero Tenacity32c1,596$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.28540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed HAVU40c1,014$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.691,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked HAVU1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108844.3%39 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed HAVU66c1,000$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.8612446.8%58 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bd2…0c9dbacked ex-Zero Tenacity52c955.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.641250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce8b…6bc7backed HAVU78c894.21$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004158.5%24 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eab…1c1dbacked HAVU68c863$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.84450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked HAVU41c796.41$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8724939.8%99 W · 150 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad09…3c3fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity50c748.7$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.7111344.2%50 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed ex-Zero Tenacity42c716.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.0952947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe63…ebfbbacked HAVU68c716$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.8840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed HAVU47c707.81$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7587244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked ex-Zero Tenacity53c681.12$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.4636253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HAVU45c639.06$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.025,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked HAVU23c634.96$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.071,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x178c…7083backed ex-Zero Tenacity62c568.67$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.14100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed HAVU50c525.81$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8880744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf248…72bfbacked ex-Zero Tenacity65c464.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.944557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked ex-Zero Tenacity47c462.54$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.042,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed HAVU45c402.09$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.326,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed HAVU47c397.14$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9561154.7%334 W · 277 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed HAVU4c393.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8314137.6%53 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked HAVU45c384$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.972,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked HAVU26c373.04$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.711,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed HAVU48c373$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6933044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe30c…3f38backed HAVU47c364$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.723447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed HAVU53c320.14$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8739851.3%204 W · 194 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed HAVU45c312.5$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0226958.4%157 W · 112 L+20.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed HAVU50c312$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15611242%47 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed HAVU58c310$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6846344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed HAVU14c287.19$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.847034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked HAVU48c281.95$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0111837.3%44 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed HAVU48c240.75$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5615655.8%87 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed HAVU62c236.65$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4730335.6%108 W · 195 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked HAVU49c221$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.291,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed HAVU49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018454.3%100 W · 84 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed HAVU49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9832844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked HAVU42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…e990backed HAVU43c179$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af8…a69ebacked HAVU56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed ex-Zero Tenacity52c176.01$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.016647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed HAVU64c172.73$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11025352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed HAVU54c169$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9329244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ex-Zero Tenacity40c161.13$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.634,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ex-Zero Tenacity47c153.89$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.142,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2097…8b03backed HAVU71c140$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked HAVU55c138$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.912946.5%60 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked HAVU53c129.62$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.151,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf73…53edbacked HAVU29c127$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.831353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed HAVU40c126.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011538.3%44 W · 71 L-15.6wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-35.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked HAVU58c121$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6449745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed HAVU48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.62722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked HAVU55c115$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6548948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0386…d6c4backed ex-Zero Tenacity35c113.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed HAVU49c110.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1545639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity57c109.62$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3326257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed HAVU49c108$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9216250%81 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked HAVU49c102.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2984454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked ex-Zero Tenacity52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4895642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked HAVU54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.591648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc78…a301backed HAVU47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4711543.5%50 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ad4…83b8backed HAVU35c98.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2110%0 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked ex-Zero Tenacity55c97.82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0529547.8%141 W · 154 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9524…58f0backed ex-Zero Tenacity53c93.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.861442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked HAVU60c93$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2654346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed ex-Zero Tenacity38c88.48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.732,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7271951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x403d…2709backed ex-Zero Tenacity18c85.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.562853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea37…94f3backed ex-Zero Tenacity47c78.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4232951.7%170 W · 159 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa11…7a86backed ex-Zero Tenacity65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked ex-Zero Tenacity50c75.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9332552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed HAVU66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5096543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd682…8d3dbacked HAVU69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed ex-Zero Tenacity42c69.88$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4928660.1%172 W · 114 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked HAVU47c69.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.523,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed ex-Zero Tenacity51c63.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.340247.8%192 W · 210 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e6…e7d8backed ex-Zero Tenacity44c63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dde…b11abacked HAVU50c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1c…35c6backed HAVU50c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2921454.2%116 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked ex-Zero Tenacity54c56.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9518751.3%96 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d12…37d5backed HAVU32c56.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.224650%23 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb68…c695backed ex-Zero Tenacity39c56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.013852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed HAVU37c52.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.445343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked HAVU29c51.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9970036.1%253 W · 447 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked ex-Zero Tenacity60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2014950.3%75 W · 74 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7641…0089backed HAVU47c49.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.151040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d8…849abacked ex-Zero Tenacity51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0211100%11 W · 0 L+4.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed HAVU48c45.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0746843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7027…fababacked HAVU48c41.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.964959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd711…749cbacked ex-Zero Tenacity51c41.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0511655.2%64 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed HAVU48c41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.816946.7%79 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.