NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d77b37e40e4aacc10e6658b1826a48262a10753730aa0772ffcf767efbe8d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Stars, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Canadiens | 60c | 1,668$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.47 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stars | 40c | 1,634$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.65 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Stars | 42c | 945$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.9 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Canadiens | 58c | 776$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.92 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Canadiens | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stars | 42c | 361.89$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Canadiens | 56c | 237.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Canadiens | 58c | 185.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Canadiens | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Stars | 43c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Canadiens | 64c | 101.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Stars | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Stars | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Stars | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Canadiens | 58c | 86.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Canadiens | 73c | 79.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Stars | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Canadiens | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…30d0backed Stars | 47c | 34.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Stars | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Stars | 47c | 26.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Canadiens | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8e…cac2backed Stars | 48c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens | 65c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. StarsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.