NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Stars: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa699d7cf12b8c347c4ba97dfb4cc8d12c567e50a8407bfcbbd2841bfe6564add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 53c | 30,805$16,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,284.74 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 10,532$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,581.96 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 10,288$4,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,465.52 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 8,300$3,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,358 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 47c | 1,334$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.02 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 926$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.04 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 54c | 620$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 51c | 583$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.33 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 573$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.23 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 550.05$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 47c | 372.34$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…ca58backed Under | 54c | 269.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 46c | 238.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 55c | 230.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 189$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 50c | 145.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 53c | 102.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 50c | 73.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 27.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 46c | 25.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Stars: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. StarsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.