South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41dda7cbcaabcc7626c3c373922ba8793587e20cb6c6de8ea1f5ff967d6aca90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 50c | 1,140$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.41 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 50c | 903.51$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.55 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed Yes | 50c | 615.76$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 65c | 549.31$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.38 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 51c | 381.48$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 50c | 301.74$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…2ff1backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed No | 50c | 165$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 50c | 159$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 47c | 126.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 11c | 119.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 108.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5f…555ebacked No | 50c | 95.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 69.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed No | 50c | 53.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 54c | 25.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5483…5e9fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC leading at halftime?this page
- Club Bolívar leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.