Tennis · resolved market
ITF Laval: Ryan Colby vs Yuta Shimizu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e3567cdeaad8a897647e451e31f07bb5746b4940afd46c40935633da906294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ryan Colbyof Ryan Colby, Yuta Shimizu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yuta Shimizu | 0c | 32,160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Yuta Shimizu | 25c | 920.6$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Ryan Colby | 74c | 878.04$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.69 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yuta Shimizu | 24c | 116.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Yuta Shimizu | 39c | 107.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Yuta Shimizu | 39c | 82.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ryan Colby | 20c | 72.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yuta Shimizu | 20c | 68.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Yuta Shimizu | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Yuta Shimizu | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ryan Colby | 61c | 55.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ryan Colby | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ryan Colby | 63c | 47.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ryan Colby | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Yuta Shimizu | 39c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -21.0wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Ryan Colby | 62c | 35.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Yuta Shimizu | 79c | 33.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Ryan Colby | 63c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Ryan Colby | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Ryan Colby | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Laval: Ryan Colby vs Yuta Shimizuthis page
- Colby vs. Shimizu: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Colby vs. Shimizu: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.