Champions League · resolved market
Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e51d0648934963051660825b644412bd5312c00f50f32e68dd9bf300a0eb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 7c | 8,531$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.01 | 799 | 35.3%282 W · 517 L | -36.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 13c | 5,024$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.04 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Yes | 9c | 2,777$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 12c | 2,288$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 286 | 36.4%104 W · 182 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb978…fac0backed Yes | 9c | 1,439$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…9959backed Yes | 12c | 1,333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…9937backed Yes | 7c | 713.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e6…2db1backed Yes | 12c | 556.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6136backed Yes | 13c | 307.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…c372backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc134…feddbacked Yes | 12c | 185$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…ca2dbacked Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 6c | 170.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 542 | 39.5%214 W · 328 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Yes | 12c | 159.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-26?this page
- Will AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia end in a draw?No won
- Will AEK win on 2026-08-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.