Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e7e138b5c5cb6355869277b5a30a476bdaf9884f11837c69a671020ef0859f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 56c | 4,202$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.47 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 3,309$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.23 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed 1win | 48c | 2,779$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.91 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed 1win | 43c | 2,149$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.48 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 1,239$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.43 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed 1win | 44c | 1,045$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.58 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed 1win | 45c | 1,035$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.74 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed 1win | 46c | 863.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked 1win | 38c | 599.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Virtus.pro | 58c | 519.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Virtus.pro | 71c | 498.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked 1win | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed 1win | 41c | 281.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro | 58c | 280$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 50c | 267$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked 1win | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed 1win | 29c | 210.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Virtus.pro | 77c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 50c | 199.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Virtus.pro | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 1win | 6c | 186.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked 1win | 36c | 74.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…595cbacked 1win | 43c | 42.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win | 39c | 38.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked 1win | 31c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked 1win | 29c | 36.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Virtus.pro | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…45aebacked Virtus.pro | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win (BO3)1win won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.