Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43d9dc025c6f831b34279319f9298534a72676c3242f0c5dfb94442f79c83c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Virtus.pro, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 49c | 3,438$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.55 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed 1win | 45c | 3,348$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.65 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Virtus.pro | 45c | 2,435$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.38 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Virtus.pro | 55c | 1,710$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.49 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked 1win | 47c | 1,182$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.4 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Virtus.pro | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Virtus.pro | 55c | 999.99$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.63 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 930.97$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.89 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Virtus.pro | 67c | 923.86$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.21 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked 1win | 44c | 867.73$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.01 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Virtus.pro | 64c | 777$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.28 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cd…e2abbacked Virtus.pro | 38c | 521.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed 1win | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro | 64c | 465.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed 1win | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 45c | 444$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Virtus.pro | 3c | 413.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed 1win | 50c | 408.82$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.41 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Virtus.pro | 67c | 304.3$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked Virtus.pro | 10c | 283.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Virtus.pro | 76c | 249.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Virtus.pro | 77c | 205.19$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Virtus.pro | 9c | 205.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Virtus.pro | 36c | 202.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 189.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed 1win | 40c | 170.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed 1win | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…dd1ebacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 136.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Virtus.pro | 63c | 92.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win | 64c | 49.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…45aebacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 29.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed 1win | 72c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 26.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win (BO3)1win won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.