Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41f9aad792a52c73114d70e1f803291958a182a43587a048b6a9a5c5970e0f98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.15 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 1,152$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.78 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 722.16$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.08 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 561.26$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.12 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 335.28$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.66 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 334.41$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 319$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…e36cbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 48c | 117.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Over | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 52c | 96.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7d…37e8backed Over | 52c | 79.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 50c | 64.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.