Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb11f63c8edc8d6e13bb73b67a874c967d288dc48ab6c1f348ac88e1fef3a765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 23,793$18,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,994.07 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 14,965$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.66 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over | 44c | 4,500$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 12c | 1,881$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.55 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 13c | 1,143$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +11.1wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 16c | 567.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 46c | 363.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 55c | 361.82$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 16c | 320.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 20c | 255$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +11.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 46c | 218$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 191.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 31c | 158.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 60c | 140.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 17c | 117.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 16c | 108.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 78c | 57.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 56.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…58ecbacked Over | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 64c | 37.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 34.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 27.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…8000backed Under | 61c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.