Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d78b7872547753f5908a1ffc4633a8bf24fe4137505feba651c7a893768ed3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 6,626$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,865.21 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 69c | 3,276$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 50c | 992.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 899.29$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.78 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 30c | 832$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 69c | 721.13$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 31c | 618.48$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 2c | 535.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 80c | 444$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 70c | 368.51$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 273.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 73c | 207$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.11 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…e36cbacked Over | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…c864backed Over | 34c | 159.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 38c | 131.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Over | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…b159backed Under | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 21c | 51.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 68c | 48.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 45.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 54c | 32.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.