Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Level UP - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x421094bc3e93188abc8f3615195a18b84eaff2123fd7ab225a345c31211631af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PlayTime, Level UP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PlayTime | 78c | 15,702$12,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,396.8 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…9a4abacked Level UP | 23c | 11,921$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.89 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Level UP | 21c | 7,210$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.97 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed PlayTime | 80c | 3,765$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.43 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed PlayTime | 79c | 3,530$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.14 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Level UP | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Level UP | 24c | 2,549$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 319 | 36.7%117 W · 202 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Level UP | 21c | 2,348$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.18 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…a328backed Level UP | 22c | 2,079$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.37 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Level UP | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Level UP | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Level UP | 15c | 1,917$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.74 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…5667backed Level UP | 22c | 1,914$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…72e7backed Level UP | 11c | 1,711$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Level UP | 23c | 1,643$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.66 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked PlayTime | 79c | 1,300$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.69 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked PlayTime | 75c | 1,275$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.73 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…5dc6backed PlayTime | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed PlayTime | 76c | 1,229$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…eabbbacked Level UP | 21c | 1,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.9 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Level UP | 1c | 920.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Level UP | 15c | 920.52$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…c05fbacked Level UP | 1c | 862.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 169 | 32.5%55 W · 114 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Level UP | 22c | 754$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Level UP | 9c | 722$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked PlayTime | 79c | 700$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Level UP | 22c | 691$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed PlayTime | 78c | 600$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked PlayTime | 79c | 573.39$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…e128backed Level UP | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Level UP | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Level UP | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Level UP | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Level UP | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked PlayTime | 78c | 422.73$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed PlayTime | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Level UP | 22c | 350$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed PlayTime | 75c | 290$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed PlayTime | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…b50bbacked Level UP | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Level UP | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed PlayTime | 78c | 218.02$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…cb74backed Level UP | 5c | 214$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed PlayTime | 77c | 202$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed PlayTime | 77c | 131$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…ea3cbacked Level UP | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Level UP | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Level UP | 19c | 113$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked PlayTime | 79c | 99.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…94c8backed PlayTime | 80c | 99.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PlayTime | 77c | 97.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…914abacked Level UP | 23c | 88.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Level UP | 20c | 87.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed PlayTime | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Level UP | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked PlayTime | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed PlayTime | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed PlayTime | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Level UP | 23c | 48.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PlayTime | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…5f74backed PlayTime | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed PlayTime | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Level UP - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Level UP (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group BPlayTime won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs Level UP - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.