Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4224bf9b6b03a21ff5b05023201dab7eb5b54b926a88d244a5dfca67b0cd76e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. John's Red Stormof St. John's Red Storm, Butler Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked St. John's Red Storm | 53c | 8,309$4,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,932.69 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Butler Bulldogs | 48c | 6,195$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 4,194$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.34 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. John's Red Storm | 52c | 2,023$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.27 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Butler Bulldogs | 45c | 1,573$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.58 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked St. John's Red Storm | 52c | 979.17$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.81 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed St. John's Red Storm | 53c | 376.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.52 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Butler Bulldogs | 46c | 234.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Butler Bulldogs | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed St. John's Red Storm | 53c | 198$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…1255backed Butler Bulldogs | 18c | 134.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed St. John's Red Storm | 54c | 102$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed St. John's Red Storm | 55c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed St. John's Red Storm | 55c | 80.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed St. John's Red Storm | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked St. John's Red Storm | 54c | 55.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed St. John's Red Storm | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-11.5)this page
- Butler Bulldogs vs. St. John's Red StormSt. John's Red Storm won
- Butler Bulldogs vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 161.5Over won
- Butler Bulldogs vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 162.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.